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5th October 2017 - Exchange Rates News written by TorFX for

5th October 2017 News: Pound Tumbles on May Speech, BoE Warning and Car Sales Slowdown

Pound Sterling (GBP)

After a trilogy of misfortune, the Pound has dropped by over -0.3% against the Euro and US Dollar.

This poor performance has been echoed elsewhere and follows a string of negative occurrences.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Theresa May gave an issue-ridden speech that brought questions of a Conservative coup back to the fore.

Later in the day, Bank of England (BoE) official Sam Woods warned that without securing a Brexit transition deal before Christmas, financial institutions could leave London en masse.

The most recent sting to GBP trade has been a slump in new car sales in September, an end-of-quarter month when sales should be rising.

The Pound could see further movement this week in response to Friday’s BoE speeches. Coming from officials Andrew Hauser and Chris Salmon, these speeches may touch on monetary policy and raise the chance of GBP volatility.

Euro (EUR)

A rise in Eurozone retail activity has strengthened the single currency today, enabling gains against the Pound and US Dollar.

The retail PMI for September moved away from the contraction range with stronger growth, providing a small boost to the Euro.

The Euro might be affected by this afternoon’s European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. Shortly after noon, the central bank will release the minutes from the last monetary policy meeting.

In the event that policymakers seem ready to consider tighter monetary policy, the Euro could advance further against the Pound and US Dollar.

US Dollar (USD)

While US economic data was positive on Wednesday afternoon, it has failed to provide lasting support for the US Dollar.

Later in the day, former Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo warned that the Fed was not paying close enough attention to economic data.

Tarullo stated that existing models may not be the best gauge of economic performance, asserting;

‘The substantive point is that we do not have a theory of inflation dynamics that works sufficiently well to be of use for the business of real-time monetary policymaking’.

The first US news this afternoon will be a trade balance report for August. On the month, expectations are for a minor reduction in the sizable deficit.

The more impactful news will come later, when four Fed officials speak during the afternoon and evening. If all policymakers are in agreement that interest rates might rise in December, the US Dollar could rally.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

An improvement to the AU trade balance hasn’t been enough to help the Australian Dollar today. AUD has instead slumped sharply, falling by over -0.4% against the US Dollar and Euro.

Today’s AU data has seen retail sales continue to contract in August and an increase in the trade surplus. The actual figures saw an increase from 0.81bn to 0.99bn, while economists had predicted a decline to 875m.

AUD might worsen further when the September construction index comes out tonight. Estimates are for a slowdown in construction activity, but not to the level of contraction.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

As talks to form a NZ coalition government drag on, the New Zealand Dollar has advanced against the Pound and US Dollar but fallen against the stronger Euro.

Recent domestic data has shown a rise in reported tax revenues by the government, which puts more funds available to whichever party manages to become the leading group.

The final count of election votes will be made over the weekend, which might see the NZ First party announce its chosen allegiance shortly afterwards.

If the third largest party backs the defending National Party then the New Zealand Dollar could appreciate, compared to NZ First supporting the opposition Labour Party.

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar has traded higher against the Pound and US Dollar today, only losing ground slightly to the Euro.

This appreciation comes in spite of warnings that the Bank of Canada (BOC) may not be able to commit to higher interest rates in the near-term.

Some fund managers instead think that the BOC will not consider higher rates until 2018 at the earliest, and could commit to a more gradual pace like the US Federal Reserve.

CAD could rise further if this afternoon brings news of a trade balance improvement in August. A reduction of the current deficit is forecast.

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